Anatomy of a World Cup Final

Anatomy of a World Cup Final

A single picture can be worth a thousand words, they say. Here is one that shows all the riders in the World Cup Final from last Sunday in their Freestyle.

This was a very closely run event with different couples coming out on top for different movements.
• Hans-Peter Minderhoud and Glock’s Flirt took the prize for trot and canter half-passes on both legs, canter pirouette right and for the artistic marks rhythm, harmony and music
• Timme Vilhelmson Silfven and Don Aurelio aced both walk movements, canter-pirouette right and degree of difficulty
• Fabienne Lütkemeier and D’Agostino on top in extended trot, extended canter, one-time and two-time changes
• Patrick Kittel and Watermill Scandic take the prize for passage, piaffe and transitions, but took a big hit in both walk movements
• Jessica von Bredow-Werndl and Unee-BB had the best entrance-halts but a hit in the trot half-pass

Riders are welcome to contact us at GDA to get more details on their World Cup Final performance

Click on the image and magnify it for the full effect

Who will qualify for Rio in Aachen this week?

This is the big week for Olympic Dressage qualification in Europe. Three countries will get their team tickets for next year’s Olympics. Following the WEG in 2014 GER, GBR and NED are already qualified (as are USA and AUS).Three more countries will qualify from the European championships, the competition is of course intense. Everyone wants that coveted team qualification.

By examining the historical scores of the team members we can make predictions on the likely team scores this week. We can take account of the likely/possible uncertainties on that prediction and we can see what would happen if the top rider/horse combination for a country for some reason goes badly, gets eliminated or the such-like. That is what we show in the picture below

The blue-points show the most likely predicted score and the blue-bars the probable range in scores if things go well or not so well for the team. The red-bars show what could go wrong if the top couple bombs.

While Germany looks to be favorite for the Gold, Britain can take that medal if things go well for them, or badly for Germany, we are talking about fluctuations of a third of a percent per rider making the difference!
The Netherlands are almost guaranteed Bronze and Sweden almost guaranteed the 4th place and thus the first new Rio qualification. Spain and Denmark are extremely close, but they are the most likely to take 5th and 6th position between them and thus earn their Rio tickets. But if they hiccup there are six nations almost on exactly the same level and ready and waiting to take their places! (Belgium, Russia, France, Switzerland, Austria and Portugal).

We also see how some nations, notably Britain and Austria rely heavily on one super star. If Valegro has a problem then Gold is out of the window and maybe any medal at all for GBR; Sweden could join the medal winners.

I’m looking forward to being there on Wednesday and Thursday to watch the sport unfold and enjoy some beautiful dressage.

January 2014, GDA is undergoing a facelift with a new interface tailored for browsers and also for mobile devices. In the process we have completely revamped the computing backend for our service so we can handle many more riders and analyses. We now have final scores for every CDI event in continental America from 2013 and all Pony, Junior, Young Rider events worldwide. More than 4000 tests added over the last few days. The results from CDI Big Tour for many years were already in place and in the next few weeks we will extend that to as many Small Tour events as possible.

This means that if you have ridden in any FEI International Dressage event over the last years we almost certainly have your data in GDA. You can obtain a GDAStart account free of charge without any credit card, you will just need to register and contact us with some “evidence” that you are or you represent the rider in question. (This may seem a little heavy but we take confidentiality of your analytics very seriously!). With GDAStart you can examine the data we already have in the database, you can use our web-forms to upload your figure scores, you can link your videos to your tests, you can look at timeline analysis of your tests, study your score sheets in new ways etc. If you want more then you can become a subscriber and get access to our more advanced analytics indicating your strengths and weakness, your training possibilities etc, you can consult with us individually to help interpret the data, you can have GDA enter your scanned scoresheets etc.

GDA is working with a steadily increasing number of National Federations in the run up to the World Equestrian Games in Normandy this summer, and those same tools are available to National trainers for all levels and for individual riders anywhere in the world.

Register for an account now and get even more out of your Dressage.

CDI Scores in 2012. How do you compare?

In this picture we show the distribution of all CDI Grand Prix scores in 2012. The blue bars show what fraction (percentage) of rides received a particular final score. You see the typical bell-shape curve with an average score of 66.28%. From this distribution we can produce the red curve, where we show what percentage of rides score above any given value.

The distribution of CDi Grand Prix scores in 2012. On the left axis and blue the percentage of all results for each % of final score. In red, and on the right axis, the percentage of rides scoring above a given score

You can use this to see what percentile your average or your latest score lies in. For example, if you score a 71.5% you can read off the red line on the right hand axis that about 12.5% of rides scores this or above, or looked at the other way around 87.5% of all rides scored lower than this.

(For those interested in statistics the standard deviation of this distribution is 4.8%)